Author: Kishino Bawono, S.IP., M.Sc.
Bandung, 26 June 2025 – Kishino Bawono, a lecturer of the International Relations Department at Parahyangan Catholic University, was invited by KompasTV to share his analysis on the ongoing war between Israel and Iran.
Across five interview sessions with KompasTV (18–25 June 2025), several key questions were explored. These included:
- Why did the Israel–Iran war break out?
- What impacts might arise from this conflict?
- Could this war escalate into a larger regional conflict? If so, which actors are likely to be involved, and what would the consequences be?
- What are the possible endgame scenarios of the war?
- What peace scenarios could realistically emerge?
- What are the implications of the U.S. strikes on Iran’s three nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow?
- Will the ceasefire declared by President Trump hold?
- What post-war or post-negotiation scenarios might unfold for both sides?
In general, Kishino explained that the war is officially framed around Iran’s nuclear proliferation, which Israel and the United States consider a regional and global security threat—despite statements from the U.S. Director of National Intelligence indicating that Iran remains far from developing a nuclear weapon. One of the projected impacts of the conflict is the escalation of missile and air strikes, as well as a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Any closure of Hormuz by Iran could significantly affect global oil prices, given its central role in transporting crude oil.
Regarding escalation dynamics, the United States is the most likely external actor to intervene, especially given that it is the only Israeli ally capable of striking and damaging the deeply buried Fordow facility using bunker-buster bombs. U.S. involvement, he argued, would almost certainly trigger retaliatory attacks on American assets in the region.
Kishino also emphasized that this escalation of violence can be understood as escalation toward de-escalation—a phase in which conflicting parties intensify violence before negotiations to secure a stronger bargaining position. The U.S. strikes on Iran’s three nuclear sites appear to be the most pivotal development so far. Although U.S. intelligence reports question the effectiveness of the strikes in neutralizing Iran’s nuclear capabilities, these attacks seem to have pushed both sides closer toward negotiations or at least a temporary ceasefire. However, it remains uncertain whether the ceasefire will hold, given that exchanges of fire were still reported as of Wednesday morning (Indonesia time).
Lastly, Kishino suggested one plausible post-war scenario: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may leverage claims of victory against Iran to bolster his domestic political standing and maintain his position as prime minister.
This series of interviews demonstrates HI UNPAR’s continued commitment to sharing academic expertise in understanding contemporary global issues, both inside and outside the classroom.
The interview videos can be accessed through the following links:
Wednesday, 18 June 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6bgKolyuo4
Thursday, 19 June 2025: https://youtu.be/vXt9I9lOAWU
Friday, 20 June 2025: https://youtu.be/M_3IbIWF3RA
Sunday, 22 June 2025: https://youtu.be/2C7Hc07lMFM
Wednesday, 25 June 2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8WPU70Iqsc