The escalation of conflict between the United States and Iran once again highlights rising global geopolitical tensions. The conflict has triggered wide-ranging impacts, including increased military security risks, disruptions to energy stability and international trade, and worsening humanitarian conditions in the Middle East.
On Wednesday (4/3), the United States was reported to be experiencing shortages of several key missiles on the fifth day of its confrontation with Iran. A senior U.S. official stated that stockpiles of missiles such as Tomahawk and SM-3 are declining amid plans to intensify attacks against Iran. This situation occurs as the Pentagon also faces limited supplies of Patriot missiles, many of which have previously been used to support Ukraine’s air defense. Nevertheless, President Donald Trump stated that U.S. ammunition reserves remain sufficient to continue military operations.
At the same time, the escalating conflict has shaken global markets. Global oil and gas prices have surged, while stock markets weakened after tensions in the Middle East intensified following Israeli and U.S. strikes against Iran. UK gas prices briefly reached their highest level in three years, while Brent crude rose above $85 per barrel. In contrast, stock indices in several regions—including the United States, Europe, and Asia—experienced declines. Concerns have grown because the conflict is occurring in a region that serves as a critical global energy supply route. The Strait of Hormuz—through which around 20 percent of global oil and gas trade passes—could potentially be disrupted. If this route is affected, the global economy could face rising inflation and increased costs for energy, transportation, and shipping.
Meanwhile, Iran’s domestic political dynamics have also drawn international attention after the Assembly of Experts, consisting of 88 Shiite clerics, reportedly selected Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Khamenei, as the leading candidate to succeed the Supreme Leader of Iran. The process reportedly took place under pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), given Mojtaba’s close ties with the institution. Reports from Iran International and The New York Times indicate that he has emerged as the frontrunner, although some clerics are concerned that his appointment could increase the risk of escalation with the United States and Israel. On the other hand, Trump has openly rejected the possibility and even expressed his desire to be involved in determining Iran’s next Supreme Leader, arguing that the future leadership should bring “harmony and peace” to Iran—an expectation widely seen as contradicting the political sovereignty of the Islamic Republic.
At the same time, the conflict expanded into the Indian Ocean after the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena reportedly sank following a torpedo attack by a U.S. submarine in international waters near the southern coast of Sri Lanka. The attack killed dozens of sailors and further extended the military confrontation between the United States and Iran beyond the Gulf region. Sri Lankan authorities reported that 87 bodies have been recovered, 32 people were rescued, and dozens remain missing from a crew of approximately 180 personnel. The vessel had previously participated in a multilateral naval exercise organized by India in the Bay of Bengal before heading back to Iran.
In Europe, diplomatic tensions also emerged after Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez rejected pressure from Trump, who threatened to cut trade relations after Spain refused to allow the use of its military bases for U.S. operations against Iran. Sánchez reaffirmed his government’s stance against involvement in war and warned that further escalation in the Middle East could cause significant casualties and disrupt the global economy. Meanwhile, the European Union stated that a threat against one member state should be considered a threat against the entire European Union.
From East Asia, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw the launch test of cruise missiles from the newly built 5,000-ton destroyer Choe Hyon at the Nampo Shipyard. The North Korean leader stated that the test demonstrates progress in integrating nuclear weapons into the country’s naval forces and called for increased production of similar warships. Although the program experienced a failed launch in 2025, Pyongyang continues to prioritize military strengthening and nuclear weapons development amid pressure from the United States and South Korea.
In addition, the conflict between the United States and Iran has also generated broader humanitarian consequences across the Middle East. Israeli airstrikes in southern Beirut triggered the displacement of around 300,000 people in Lebanon following rocket and drone attacks by Hezbollah. Of these, only around 100,000 people have been accommodated in government shelters, while many refugees and migrants have been forced to seek protection elsewhere, including at St. Joseph Tabaris Church. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) stated that humanitarian assistance has been mobilized, but limited funding and the large number of displaced people have made crisis management increasingly difficult.
Sources:
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