Responding to the dynamics of President Donald Trump’s threats toward Iran, a lecturer in International Relations at Catholic Parahyangan University, Kishino Bawono, S.I.P., M.Sc., had the opportunity to share his views in a live interview on Kompas TV Merauke. Kishino argued that Iran is in a relatively confident position in facing pressure from the United States, particularly due to its strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz, which directly affects global energy trade. He further suggested that, in a prolonged conflict scenario, Iran is likely to leverage the situation to build international sympathy and strengthen its bargaining position in future negotiations.
On the other hand, Kishino emphasized that U.S. credibility is at stake if the threats issued are not followed by concrete actions. This is because such inconsistency could weaken perceptions of the United States’ power projection capabilities. He also highlighted internal dynamics within the U.S. administration, particularly differences in perspective between ideological and rational groups, which may influence strategic decision-making processes.
Furthermore, Kishino predicted that the most likely course of action for Trump would be a limited escalation as a form of political signaling, without engaging in full-scale conflict. This strategy is considered important for maintaining domestic leadership credibility while still leaving room for negotiation. Meanwhile, Iran is expected to remain in a measured defensive posture and be prepared to respond to various scenarios, including the possibility of military strikes, by leveraging its strategic advantages.
The full interview video can be accessed through the following link.